Post: Estimated odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID using PSID Patch.
Options
02-09-2013, 02:50 AM
#1
baconpie
Save Point
Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?
PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].
To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.
Good luck.
EDIT: So I just learned (with help from ItsDark's and sarracen's comments) that You must login or register to view this content.. PSID Patch does not change the first 16 digits of a console ID for this reason. This means a few things. For starters, there are 1.8×10[SUP]19[/SUP] possible 16-digit hexadecimal combinations, which is significantly less than the 3.4×10[SUP]38[/SUP] possible 32-digit hexadecimal combinations I was dealing with in my previous odds calculations. However, it also means I cannot use worldwide PS3 sales figures in my calculations, as different regions have different Target IDs locked to their region, meaning each Target ID has its own sales figures that needs to be used in place of the 77 million I was using earlier. This is further complicated when you factor in the different SKUs, since each Target ID/sales region has different sales figures for each of the many PS3 SKUs/model numbers.
I tried searching for PS3 sales figures by region and by model/SKU, but all I could come up with was this You must login or register to view this content. that shows sales figures for Japan, Europe, and the US; and You must login or register to view this content. about UK sales figures. I have no idea how the remaining 34 million PS3 sales are divided amongst the 7 other Target IDs. I found nothing on sales figures for different SKUs.
So, time to make wild guesses. I'll divide the 34 million unaccounted for sales evenly amongst the remaining 7 Target IDs. I'll also divide the sales for each region evenly amongst all PS3 SKUs/models available in that region. It's not going to be 100% accurate, but considering the extremely large numbers we're dealing with, it should be reasonably close.
| Region | US | Japan | Europe | UK | Korea | Mexico | Australia/NZ | South Asia | Taiwan | Russia | Hong Kong |
| Sales Figures (in millions) | 12 | 6.3 | 19.7 | 5 | 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] |
| Number of SKUs | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| Odds of Randomly Generating a Valid Console ID[SUP]2[/SUP] | 1 in 2.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 3.81×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 1.03×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 4.06×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 3.46×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 3.46×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 4.23×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 4.23×10[SUP]13[/SUP] | 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] |
[SUP]1[/SUP] - Estimated
[SUP]2[/SUP] - Obtained by using the formula "1 in" 18446744073709551616/(Sales Figures/Number of SKUs)
So, not quite as astronomical as originally thought, but still damn near impossible.
Last edited by
baconpie ; 02-09-2013 at 03:48 PM.
Reason: Massive corrections.
The following 22 users say thank you to baconpie for this useful post:
02-09-2013, 03:03 AM
#2
reaperburns88
Error… Cat invasion!
Originally posted by baconpie
So, you're banned from PSN/want to protect your CFW PS3 from getting banned. You check these forums, and discover that with a valid Console ID and PSID Patch you can unban/protect your PS3 from ban.
Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?
PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].
To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.
Good luck.
Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?
PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].
To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.
Good luck.
So... should I play the lottery instead?
The following 8 users say thank you to reaperburns88 for this useful post:
02-09-2013, 04:22 AM
#3
sarracen
Do a barrel roll!
Originally posted by baconpie
So, you're banned from PSN/want to protect your CFW PS3 from getting banned. You check these forums, and discover that with a valid Console ID and PSID Patch you can unban/protect your PS3 from ban.
Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?
PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].
To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.
Good luck.
Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?
PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].
To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.
Good luck.
I knew the odds wouldn't be good but DAMN.
Although the first 10 hexadecimal digits are always 0000000100 so we can probably get them right.
That should make the odds "SLIGHTLY" better.lol
02-09-2013, 12:09 PM
#5
philipeininger
Treasure hunter
Originally posted by baconpie
So, you're banned from PSN/want to protect your CFW PS3 from getting banned. You check these forums, and discover that with a valid Console ID and PSID Patch you can unban/protect your PS3 from ban.
Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?
PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].
To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.
Good luck.
Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?
PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].
To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.
Good luck.
i Dont understand Do You have Skype?
02-09-2013, 12:41 PM
#7
philipeininger
Treasure hunter
Originally posted by paki4life
i just gened a vaild one lol
How can you help what is Your Skype?
02-09-2013, 12:45 PM
#9
philipeininger
Treasure hunter
Originally posted by paki4life
i just tryed for 30min an i was like last time if not fuk it and i tryed it one more time an i got an valid one but they chances you get an vaild one are very low
ok but what is your skype?
Copyright © 2024, NextGenUpdate.
All Rights Reserved.
