Post: Estimated odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID using PSID Patch.
02-09-2013, 02:50 AM #1
baconpie
Save Point
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); So, you're banned from PSN/want to protect your CFW PS3 from getting banned. You check these forums, and discover that with a valid Console ID and PSID Patch you can unban/protect your PS3 from ban.

Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?

PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].

To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.

Good luck.


EDIT: So I just learned (with help from ItsDark's and sarracen's comments) that You must login or register to view this content.. PSID Patch does not change the first 16 digits of a console ID for this reason. This means a few things. For starters, there are 1.8×10[SUP]19[/SUP] possible 16-digit hexadecimal combinations, which is significantly less than the 3.4×10[SUP]38[/SUP] possible 32-digit hexadecimal combinations I was dealing with in my previous odds calculations. However, it also means I cannot use worldwide PS3 sales figures in my calculations, as different regions have different Target IDs locked to their region, meaning each Target ID has its own sales figures that needs to be used in place of the 77 million I was using earlier. This is further complicated when you factor in the different SKUs, since each Target ID/sales region has different sales figures for each of the many PS3 SKUs/model numbers.

I tried searching for PS3 sales figures by region and by model/SKU, but all I could come up with was this You must login or register to view this content. that shows sales figures for Japan, Europe, and the US; and You must login or register to view this content. about UK sales figures. I have no idea how the remaining 34 million PS3 sales are divided amongst the 7 other Target IDs. I found nothing on sales figures for different SKUs.

So, time to make wild guesses. I'll divide the 34 million unaccounted for sales evenly amongst the remaining 7 Target IDs. I'll also divide the sales for each region evenly amongst all PS3 SKUs/models available in that region. It's not going to be 100% accurate, but considering the extremely large numbers we're dealing with, it should be reasonably close.


Region US Japan Europe UK Korea Mexico Australia/NZ South Asia Taiwan Russia Hong Kong
Sales Figures (in millions) 12 6.3 19.7 5 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP]
Number of SKUs 13 13 11 11 9 9 11 13 13 11 13
Odds of Randomly Generating a Valid Console ID[SUP]2[/SUP] 1 in 2.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 3.81×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 1.03×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 4.06×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 3.46×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 3.46×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 4.23×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 4.23×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP]


[SUP]1[/SUP] - Estimated
[SUP]2[/SUP] - Obtained by using the formula "1 in" 18446744073709551616/(Sales Figures/Number of SKUs)

So, not quite as astronomical as originally thought, but still damn near impossible.
Last edited by baconpie ; 02-09-2013 at 03:48 PM. Reason: Massive corrections.

The following 22 users say thank you to baconpie for this useful post:

^TPP^, -SuperMan, iTruceFret, AlexNGU, BadChoicesZ, BrekLF, Choco, ContagiousModz, DEREKTROTTER, JasonGr, ltsDark, moviedog, NGU-xNiicKzHD, John, Pseudo_Soldier, SALEM-x, Slice, slim355, vAerox9, Winter
02-16-2013, 07:19 AM #29
BadChoicesZ
I defeated!
Originally posted by paki4life View Post
i just gened a vaild one lol


shoulda bought lotto
02-16-2013, 07:47 AM #30
Originally posted by StubnOne View Post
shoulda bought lotto


i should have Smile
06-27-2013, 02:39 PM #31
rouad
Keeper
Hello Smile all what has been written here is correct, but lacking information and one I will try to make is you there from the output has the numbers to increase Yes it is true, and certainly you will see the numbers redundant and why batting has missed all figures Hex and you have the multiplication table to figures Hex so permeates the process the characters and be valid...Greetings may be useful Thread

[ATTACH=CONFIG]25381[/ATTACH]
08-10-2013, 11:58 PM #32
Default Avatar
cj997
Guest
Originally posted by rouad View Post
Hello Smile all what has been written here is correct, but lacking information and one I will try to make is you there from the output has the numbers to increase Yes it is true, and certainly you will see the numbers redundant and why batting has missed all figures Hex and you have the multiplication table to figures Hex so permeates the process the characters and be valid...Greetings may be useful Thread

[ATTACH=CONFIG]25381[/ATTACH]

Can you send me the image via skype?? pls add me bios.csp
02-15-2014, 11:47 PM #33
baconpie
Save Point
Originally posted by rouad View Post
Hello Smile all what has been written here is correct, but lacking information and one I will try to make is you there from the output has the numbers to increase Yes it is true, and certainly you will see the numbers redundant and why batting has missed all figures Hex and you have the multiplication table to figures Hex so permeates the process the characters and be valid...Greetings may be useful Thread

[ATTACH=CONFIG]25381[/ATTACH]


I'm sorry, I don't quite understand what you're trying to say here.

Also, hi to anybody coming over here from the Console Crunch thread! See, I told you it was actually me...
02-19-2014, 08:01 PM #34
Why not get a console I'd generator? I have one where I pull Ids from people's consoles in the game you need to be online and connected and on dex and it pulls all the Ids from your game! Like how hard is that! And it works
03-12-2014, 03:12 AM #35
MrNewbie
Bounty hunter
Could you please pm me that tool that takes other peoples console ids thanks bro please pm me
03-12-2014, 03:27 AM #36
L0LZ
Bounty hunter
Originally posted by uhamphy View Post
why not get a console i'd generator? I have one where i pull ids from people's consoles in the game you need to be online and connected and on dex and it pulls all the ids from your game! Like how hard is that! And it works



proof or gtfo
07-14-2015, 02:46 AM #37
There are way better chances of you research the IDPS on ps3 wiki I get a good id out of every 10 I generate with my algorithm.

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